Perron Campaigns Election Update: The election fever is on!

Dear friends, peers and colleagues

With the elections less than four months away, the election fever is definitely on. As all surveys indicate, Noynoy Aquino is the frontrunner for the presidential election. Voters like him and his family for their clean image. This being said, unless a candidate is running unopposed, everybody is beatable. Especially in a presidential election, three months is an eternity. Exactly six years ago, three months before the 2004 presidential election, FPJ was still the clear frontrunner in all the surveys and GMA had just overtaken Roco for second place. Also, in a way, the sudden arrival of Noynoy a few months ago also shows how volatile this race still is. Some of his supporters are probably joining a bandwagon and could still change their minds. The challenge for Noynoy will be to answer the questions about his record and readiness.

Since Manny Villar is running behind, he has to do something to change the dynamics of the race. An election campaign is about showing differences. But how do you show differences with somebody who has a skyrocketing approval rating? That’s Villar’s challenge. Ironically, Barack Obama’s campaign could be an inspiration to both, Aquino and Villar. On the one hand, Obama ran against somebody much more experienced and had to answer questions about his readiness. On the other hand, he also ran 20% behind Hillary for a long time. It was only a few weeks before the first caucus in Iowawhen he started to pick up.

Joseph Estrada clearly has a very loyal base of supporters who would swim to China with him. In 2007, many candidates endorsed by Estrada won. Once the disqualification issue is resolved, it will definitely give some momentum to the campaign as it fits the Robin Hood image of Erap. His challenge is to convince the broad middle class to give him a second chance.

I would not write off Gilbert Teodoro and Dick Gordon entirely, but they need big, bold steps to get into the game. The challenge for Teodoro is clearly that he has to defend the incumbent administration in a way that is not turning off voters. Also, local machinery has a limited impact, especially in a nationwide campaign. It is necessary to protect the votes but it can only generate votes to a limited extent. Remember the 2007 elections? Only three Team Unity candidates made it to the Senate, while Honasan and Trillanes also made it. So much for the wonders of local machinery in a nationwide campaign (in fact, even at the local level, the capacity of machinery to generate votes is over-estimated. It can mostly protect votes only).

Don’t underestimate the forums and debates!

In 2004 and 2007, the big new thing in Philippine election campaigns were the paid tv ads. Candidates who made smart use of it, could improve their standing dramatically.The big new thing in 2010 are the televised forums and debates. Since the media is not only showing them live but also reports about the outcome of the debates, they reach a broad audience. Voters appreciate it because it’s the only opportunity to compare the candidates and to see them next to each other. It works best for candidates who are young and articulate. In my opinion, the debates are the reason why Gilbert Teodoro is slowly improving his standing. It is not yet enough to really translate into votes, but people become less negative about him. On the other hand, it hurts those who are absent or perform badly.

The same is true for vice-presidential and senatorial candidates. Once there will be debates for them, they are well advised to invest enough time into comprehensive debate preparation. Of course, this does not mean that the paid ads have become obsolete. The importance of the debates comes in addition to the ads. Also, as of now, we have not yet seen a knock-out ad. In terms of the message, all presidential ads are basically doing the same thing. This explains why none is getting a big boost out of the millions spent on them.

The race for vice president

Talking about ads that don’t connect with voters, Mar Roxas is an example. All the ads that he aired during the entire 2009 did not help him much. It’s much more the fact that he was giving in to Noynoy, the LP ticket and the way he played it out (and the tv coverage that came with it) that made him the frontrunner for the Vice Presidential run. This being said, Loren Legarda can give him a good run for the money. She has a history of coming from behind. In 2004, she started way behind Noli de Castro and was able to catch up significantly. Also, the typhoons of the past months have illustrated to average voters why the environmental issue matters.

The way I see it, Jojo Binay is running the best ad campaign of this election cycle: the campaign has a clear, appealing and believable message with content (namely his record as Mayor of Makati), the ads are well-executed and he is investing enough money into a serious time buy. This is the reason why he has improved a lot in all parts of the country. In most cases, a good ad campaign is enough to get a candidate to the Senate. So I wonder, why go for a difficult vice-presidential run if you are almost a shoo-in for the Senate?

The race for the Senate

The race for the Senate is even more volatile than the ones for president and vice president. Surveys that are taken months before the election usually have a bias in favour of established names. For many known names, the ratings reflect awareness much more than real support. At the end of 2006, Ralph Recto, Vicente Sotto and Koko Pimentel were all in the winning twelve, but ended up losing. Unless they take big, bold action, I expect Recto, Sotto and Lapid to lose ranks. Bong Revilla, Jinggoy Estradaand Franklin Drilon will make it back to the Senate, but the road will be harder than what it looks like right now. As for the new candidates, the strategy is to put together a well-researched ad campaign that communicates a credible and believable message. Carry it out with discipline and do well in the debates. In 2004, Mar Roxas,Jamby Madrigal and Dick Gordon were all outside of the winning twelve at the beginning of the year. They all made it on Election Day. The February and March surveys will be interesting to watch in this respect. Let’s look forward to exciting months in Philippine politics.

Do you find these points interesting? Let us know your opinion. Call, email (lperron@perroncampaigns.com) or txt (09173322900) us!

News about Perron Campaigns and Dr. des. Louis Perron:

·        Perron Campaigns is becoming ever more global. We were involved in the last German elections (on the winning side!) and now have clients in the UK and Romania .

·        I published a rather scientific article about Philippine elections in the German Journal for Political Consulting.  If you wish to get a free copy of this article, kindly email us at (ktmayo@perroncampaigns.com).

Kind regards

Louis Perron

(C) Copyright, Perron Campaigns, Louis Perron, 2010.

 

 

Perron Campaigns
Dr. des. Louis Perron
Seefeldstr. 69
8008 Zürich
Switzerland

Phone: ++41 43 488 37 20
Fax: ++41 43 488 35 00
Cell: ++41 76 575 56 84

There are three simple steps to winning every campaign: 1) Decide what you are going to say; 2) Decide how and to whom you are going to say it; and 3) say it - Joseph Napolitan.

Muslim group Minhaj-ul-Quran issues fatwa against terrorists -Times Online

Muslim group Minhaj-ul-Quran issues fatwa against terrorists -Times Online

Ban mourns deaths of top UN officials in Haiti quake

Ban mourns deaths of top UN officials in Haiti quake

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Hukuman ng Mamamayan (Jury System)

Berteni C. Causing sent a message to the members of HUKUMAN NG MAMAMAYAN (JURY SYSTEM).

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Subject: Jury advocacy is born in Tuguegarao City!

I have just arrived from a trip to Tuguegarao City where I guested as a speaker on juryism.

The result: WE HAVE SUCCEEDED in converting more than 200 people there in actively campaigning for the installation of jury systems in the Philippines.  They have pledged to knock on doors to solicit signatures for the petition to install jury system in our beloved country!

The event held at Moon Garden Resort Convention Hall in Tuguegarao City was organized by another jury advocacy group from London named "Philippine Jury International," led by Daisy Brett-Holt. Visit her site at http://www.facebook.com/l/b35d1;philippinejury.com.

I credit Miss Daisy for organizing Katarungang Pangsambayanan Inc. headquartered in Ballesteros, Cagayan. This local group is under the umbrella of Philippine Jury International organized in United Kingdom. I supposed this is a group separate from Miss Ana Maravilla's. This Tuguegarao event was all paid for by Miss Daisy and her partner Miss Merle of Pangasinan.  They took advantage of their vacation to stage this event.

What Miss Daisy and Miss Merle advocated is "Trial by Jury."  I introduced all of them to the idea of having a Grand Jury in tandem with Trial Jury and they all attentively listened when I spoke broadly. All sorts of questions expected were asked during the open forum held in the afternoon of the event. I spoke with passion, sending them all in awe whenever I cite gory stories what could have not have happened if the jury system were already installed. No one was talking when I was talking. When I spoke, my tears were about to fall because the face of Vic del Fierro was in my mind as I was delivering my impassioned speech.  He was the first person who introduced jury idea to me. Then it was followed up by Sir Marlowe Camello and Ana Maravilla, who was passionate and persistent in convincing me into the idea. The rest became history.

After the event, everybody came to me and extended firm and warm handshake, pledging they will campaign all out for the jury establishment.

The group was composed of at least five barangay chairmen of Cagayan province and the members of the protestant congregation that hosted the place for the event.

In that event, I brought with me my partner, Atty. Cirilo P. Sabarre Jr. of Calbayog City, my earlier convert to juryism. I also brought with me the president of the Post Office union.

From that event, my heart grew drastically fonder for Jury establishment.

From that event, I also learned that it is now high time to shift to higher gear in the educational campaign for jury: by means of visiting all provinces for a jury talk and bringing along campaign materials to be distributed to them and data book to have all attendees sign their name and write their basic personal information and contact numbers.

With this, I now see the necessity of printing out at least 5 MILLION LEAFLETS to be handed out. I do not know how to finance this.  Of course, I would need transportation expenses in sorties to all provinces.

The HMMI Articles and By Laws are due for filing this Monday before the SEC.

By the way, I have forged an agreement with Ma'am Daisy that we will pool our strength and divide the work on geographical basis to be more effective. I am also looking forward to have a fairly long strategy-formation meeting with Ma'am Elvie Medina and Mama Cita on this. We need to focus on people we think we can have better chances of converting.

Please see the photos of the launch onhttp://www.facebook.com/l/b35d1;philjury.ning.com/photo/albums/jury-launch-in-tuguegarao-city.



Patriotically yours,


Toto Causing
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Secretary-General to travel to Haiti to show solidarity with quake victims

Secretary-General to travel to Haiti to show solidarity with quake victims

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Ban ‘heartened’ by scale of global response to help Haiti quake victims

Ban ‘heartened’ by scale of global response to help Haiti quake victims

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Islam and Human Rights

Islam and Human Rights

Thursday, December 31, 2009, 04:33 PM EST [General]

 I'm going to discuss human rights and Islam.  This is an issue that is not only important, but probably one of the most misunderstood topics that the world has about Islam today. Terrorist attacks, the media and the images of Islam shown on television give people a negative view of this peaceful religion. Muslims in general are looked at as terrorists, while Muslim women are seen as oppressed. 

When we speak about human rights in Islam, we really mean rights that were granted by God.  Therefore, when we speak about this topic we must first know what the Qu'ran says about human rights, because the Qu'ran is the word of God.  No government or legislative assembly on earth has the right to change or amend any of those rights conferred by God.  So, although Islam has already laid down these human rights for everyone to follow in the Qu'ran centuries ago, the United Nations did not develop a Universal Declaration of Human Rights until December of 1948. As Muslims who follow the Qu'ran and the teachings of the Holy Prophet (saw), we know that this declaration of the United Nations is just recently discussing issues that were already set out for us to follow centuries ago.  If everyone followed the Qu'ran and it's commandments regarding human rights than stereotypes about true Islam such as oppression and terrorism would be erased and this declaration by the UN would not be necessary.  Issues such as slavery, racism and poverty would not be as much of an issue today if we were to follow these laws God had created for us. 

I will go over just a few of the 30 articles discussed in the UN declaration and show how these issues had been revealed by God to the Holy Prophet Muhammad (saw) to bring to the world and for us to follow.

Article 1 of the UN Declaration: 

All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. They are endowed with reason and conscience and should act towards one another in a spirit of brotherhood.   

Before I get to what Islam teaches in the Qu'ran about this human right, I would like to share an incident that occurred when I had a training course for my job.  The course was on cultural competency, we discussed issues such as stereotypes and labels that are given to different races and cultures.  Each of us was asked to discuss a situation where we interacted with a different race or culture we weren't familiar with and how we handled it.  It was interesting because I heard stories of people who said they have never interacted with other cultures and some of them said their families would be upset if they bought someone of a different race home. 

One story I heard stood out more than others and when I was given this topic, it made me reflect about that day and the beauty of Islam.  This woman discussed how she had just moved and she was looking for a church to go to.  She found a church and walked in, not knowing everyone in the church was African-American.  When people noticed the "White lady" come in, she said it was almost as if everything stopped and everyone turned around to look at her.  After the service she said she was approached by the person who delivered the sermon, who said to her, we would appreciate if you didn't come back, you're a distraction.  When I heard this I was shocked but it also made me think about some places of worship today.  There are churches where the majority of the people who attend are White, there are Hispanic churches and there are Black churches, but there is only one mosque for every race, color and culture.  When you go to any place of worship, the sole focus should be the gaining nearness to God.  So regardless of your color, status or ethnicity, you shouldn't feel as if you don't belong. 

When it was my turn to present, I couldn't tell of a single incident because I have met people from all races and cultures when I attend the mosque.  At our annual conventions, each year I am able to interact with people from all over the world and no one feels as if they are better than the next person.  Every year millions of Muslims gather for the pilgrimage to Mecca and we see them all dressed in the same fashion.  The reason for this is to show the equality in Islam.  Islam doesn't care about your status or race and Arabs, Asians, Whites and Blacks are all united as brothers.  When I heard this lady speak of this incident, all I could think was this is not Islam.  Everyone who was in that room and so many more people in the world would benefit if they knew the true teachings of human rights in Islam.     

What The Qu'ran says:

 Islam teaches that human beings have a moral obligation to live in harmony with each other.  Islam recognizes the rights to equality for all human beings regardless of race, color, status or creed.  The Qu'ran says "O mankind, we have created you from male and female." (49:14).  This means all humans are brothers. We are descendants from one father and one mother.  The verse goes on to say "And we set you up as nations and tribes so that you may be able to recognize each other."  This simply means we were divided into nations, groups and races as a means of distinction so that those from one race or tribe may meet and become familiar to another tribe and co-operate with one another as brothers.  If there is any supremacy of one man over another, it is in regards only to his purity of character, God-consciousness and high morals.  It has nothing to do with race, nationality, color or language as the Holy Prophet (saw) said, "Indeed, the noblest among you before God are the most heedful of you."  Islam speaks volumes on brotherhood and I leave this first issue of equality by giving you an example of the way the Holy Prophet (saw) demonstrated this by saying in his farewell sermon, "No Arab has any superiority over a non-Arab, nor does a non-Arab have any superiority over a Black man, or the Black man any superiority over the White man.  You are all children of Adam, and Adam was created from clay."  The verses from the Qu'ran, and the teachings of the Holy Prophet (saw), show how Islam established equality regardless of the person's race, color, nationality or creed centuries ago. 

Article 3 of the UN Declaration:

Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.

What the Qu'ran says:         

Islam says that the first and foremost basic right for all mankind is the right to life.  It is said in the Qu'ran, "Whosoever kills a human being (without any reason like man-slaughter, or corruption on earth) it is as though he has killed all mankind." (5:33). The Holy Prophet (saw) stated "The greatest sins are to associate something with God and to kill human beings."  Security of person in Islam is shown in the Qu'ran and proven through the examples of the Holy Prophet (saw).  Hinduism, Judaism and Christianity never perished in Muslim states, but actually flourished as protected minority communities.  We know the importance of the right to life when we hear "And Whosoever saves a life it is as though he saved the lives of all mankind." (5:33).  Those living in a Muslim state, regardless of religion have the right to life, prosperity, security and honor because in Islam there in no compulsion in religion.  As the Holy Prophet (saw) said when it came to protecting non-Muslims in a Muslim state "one who kills a man under covenant will not even smell the fragrance of paradise."  Declarations in many countries say the right to life is only for citizens of that country, whereas in Islam this right has been given to mankind as a whole.

Article 4 of the UN Declaration:

No one shall be held in slavery; slavery and the slave trade shall be prohibited in all their forms

What the Qu'ran says:

            The issue of slavery is one of the most important topics because it is something that this country was raised on.  Holding anyone against their will without a purpose is against the teachings of Islam.  Islam discussed this issue of slavery and tried to solve this problem in Arabia by encouraging people to set slaves free and being expiated from some of their sins.  If you freed a slave on your own will, it was an act of such great value that the limbs of the man who freed the slave would be protected from hell fire, one for each limb of the slave freed.  In 40 years at the time of the rightly guided Caliphs, slavery in Arabia was no more and slaves had been liberated.  After this the only slaves were those who were captured on the battlefield and they were all held until their own government agreed to receive them back in exchange for Muslim soldiers or paying a ransom.  As we hear in stories told of the Holy Prophet (saw), He would give up his own food and not eat to feed someone who was captured in war.  His great examples, the humane way he treated others, even those who fought against Him was the main reason many of these people eventually embraced Islam, not because they were forced by the sword as some are often misled to believe.  So, although slavery was abolished inArabia and in Islam, eventually it became an essential part of this countries growth and history and went on for hundreds of years.

So how is this the UN declaration when it has already been set out in the Qu'ran?

            These are just 3 of the things discussed in the UN declaration and I could review each one and show how the Qu'ran has already stated these human rights.  When I was reading the rest of the declaration, I thought to myself this isn't created by the UN this is the Qu'ran.  The only difference is that the Qu'ran had so many more things that were on human rights that need to be introduced to the world.  The right to a basic standard of life would eliminate homelessness and poverty but I saw this in the Qu'ran but did not see this mentioned in the Declaration by the UN.  The Qu'ran says "And in their wealth there is acknowledged right for the needy and destitute."  The obvious meaning of this is that anyone who asks for help or anyone who is suffering has a right to share in the property and wealth of a Muslim.  If one is in a position to help and a needy person asks for help, or we know one is in need, it is our duty to help him.  This is the beauty of Islam, it is our obligation as Muslims to help those in need.  So while we have people who can't afford a meal, we also have those who spend their wealth only on material things, not in the interest of those who need help. 

As Muslims we need to present ourselves in a manner taught in the Qu'ran and by the examples of The Holy Prophet Muhammad (saw).  Unfortunately, there are some Muslims in the world who are not following the teachings of the Qu'ran and are killing people in the name of Islam.  This is what we see on television and today we live in a society where people are more inclined to learn about Islam from what they see on the news and television, rather than to learn about the truth for themselves.  The good thing about this is that regardless of what they see on television, they can't deny the truth about Islam when they see the way we as Ahmadis model true Islam by the way we carry ourselves everyday.  So despite the false things we hear, we know Islam is not about terrorism or oppression because we know the Holy Prophet Muhammad (saw) said "God has no mercy on one who shows no mercy to others."  But we do know Islam is about peace, prosperity and human rights.

    

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