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Beware: Complete power vacuum!
Beware: Complete power vacuum!
Privileged Spits
By TOTO CAUSING
Beware: Complete power vacuum
The premature lifting of the unlawful martial law in Maguindanao province was further prompted by a call from the Obama administration. But this is not an assurance that the Filipinos have nothing more to fear about a no-election scenario. To the contrary, the desire of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to stay in power at any cost is still a clear-and-present danger.
So what do you think will happen if there would be massive failure of elections in almost all parts of the country? As such, nobody would be elected president, vice-president, senators and congressmen in more than half of its seats even after the term of office of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Vice-President Noli De Castro ends on June 30, 2010.
For sure, we will be a country without President, without Vice-President, without Senate President and without Speaker of the House.
This is a situation of “a complete power vacuum.”
The Obama warning
Before proceeding to the explanation why Filipinos should not let their guards down, let us refresh what US President Barrack Hussein Obama said in his inaugural speech concerning corrupt world leaders, where he said:
“To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of the dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.”
Thereafter, Obama went to see leaders perceived to be corrupt. Among those he met was Gloria. She came to the White House where Obama repeatedly stressed that elections in the Philippines must push through.
But during their stay there, the Team Gloria went to scandalous dinners - spending one million pesos at Le Cirque restaurant in New York City and seven hundred fifty thousand pesos in Bobby Van’s Steakhouse in Washington DC.
Recently, State Secretary Hillary Clinton visited the Philippines to “follow up” and deliver America’s message: ensure holding of the elections in 2010.
The follow up made by Clinton on the Arroyo administration must have been due to the persistent intelligence reports reaching the Obama administration that she has been hell-bent on employing means available, no matter how remote, in order for her to stay.
This report is validated by the fact that countless of big corruption issues have been thrown against Gloria, including the $329-million NBN-ZTE project, the fertilizer scam used in the elections of 2004, and the Hello Garci cheating.
After martial law in Maguindanao was declared on December 4, 2009, two United States congressmen, Howard Berman and Chris Smith, passed filed on December 8 their joint resolution before the US Congress condemning the Ampatuan Massacre, calling for impartial investigation and urging the Philippine authorities to respect the free exercise of the freedom of the press. This resolution must have doubly prompted Obama to do persuasive efforts so as not to offend the Filipino-Americans.
Aside from the brutality of the massacre that is revolting to any conscience, the concerns of the US were heightened not only by its economic interests here but also due to the urgings from Filipino-Americans who now have louder voice in its political landscape.
Cling to power at all cost
It takes no fertile imagination to know why Arroyo will insist on staying in power. She is afraid of the day when her powers and immunity from suit as president expire on June 30, 2010. After that, she will surely face the possibility of arrest like what happened to her predecessor, convicted President Joseph Estrada, who she ironically pardoned.
She is also aware that when she is no longer president, there is no legal remedy available for her to prevent the filing of criminal charges against her. Now, she is determined to stay even as President in acting capacity or to change the government to a parliamentary form where she can easily be elected as prime minister to stay immune from suit.
Any of these may be difficult to achieve considering the legal obstacles and rabid opposition from the public. But she is nevertheless determined to try to go for any available remedy.
And if she won in 2004 by means of Hello Garci operations, she may also push for the success of evil objectives, considering further that top military and police positions are occupied by her “classmates” from the PMA Class of 1978.
And if it is possible for her to become acting president or prime minister, it also takes no extraordinary thinking to say why Gloria’s bid to stay in power is a clear-and-present danger: she will do everything she can to keep the powers of the President.
It is therefore not comforting to think that she will not “cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of the dissent.”
Hiding the plot
While this author was not surprised that martial law would be declared in Maguindanao following the massacre in Ampatuan town, he was surprised by the sudden lifting of it.
This was so because there was still enough time, at least two days more, for her to keep the martial rule under Proclamation No. 1959. Yet, she lifted it on the Saturday before the Congress was yet to deliberate on it on the next Monday and the Supreme Court had yet to receive the comment of the Office of the President to the petitions seeking to declare martial law illegal.
Before disserting on the next plot, it is worth noting that Gloria already knew that the martial law she declared will not hold water before the Congress and the Supreme Court, despite the fact that these bodies are being peopled by her allies. But with the clarity of the illegality of martial law, she immediately lifted it.
She did not want to do the lifting within the precarious moments to avoid the risk of getting confirmations about the fears that she had actually been trying to use the legitimate massacre case as a justification for martial law. This law can only be issued on either of the two causes: rebellion or invasion.
And if these fears are confirmed, their execution of a new plot would never get any belief that she was in good faith. Shortly after lifting the martial law, her prosecutors cited unofficial reasons that the said martial law was proclaimed only to allow them to arrest the Ampatuans. The truth, however, remains: she has been trying to hide the no-election plot while looking for ways on how to achieve it using legitimate causes.
Still believing a new plan is still feasible, she nipped her martial law in the bud to erase the doubts as to her “sincerity.”
So that aside from persuasion from the Obama administration, the purpose of lifting the martial law “prematurely” is to hide the plot.
Now that the martial law talks have died down, what is next?
Do not relax.
Evil stays clear and present
The Filipinos must remain vigilant considering the greed and the genius of Gloria’s boys and girls, including Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales; political operator Ronaldo Puno, who is occupying a material portfolio of Secretary of the Interior and Local Governments; Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, who is himself a military tactician; and legal minds Raul Gonzales, who sits as the Chief Presidential Legal Counsel; and Agnes Torres Devanadera, who sits as the Justice Secretary and the Solicitor General at the same time.
Remember that the only legal way for Gloria to achieve her objective of staying in power is to cause disruptions in elections to force a suspension of proclamation of winners in presidential, vice-presidential and senatorial contests.
If there is no President who can be proclaimed, the Constitution says it is the elected Vice-President who shall take over until the new President is proclaimed. But if there is also no Vice-President to take over because he, too, cannot be proclaimed, the Senate President shall take over under the same Constitution. But if there are also no new 12 senators who can be proclaimed because there would still be votes that should be counted, then the incumbent 12 senators cannot elect a Senate President for it will be argued that it needed at least 13 senators to elect a Senate President. And if there is no Senate President, then it is the Speaker of the House who will act as President.
But there is also the danger of this extra-constitutional way: a coup d’etat or a junta in the case of complete power vacuum.
Too easy to get elected Speaker
And if Gloria wins the congressional election in one district in Pampanga, it is easy for her to win the Speaker’s post considering the enormous wealth she has acquired that she can use to bribe and the “debts of gratitude” she had forged during the entire period of her presidency.
Add to this the Supreme Court’s ruling that allowed appointed officials of Gloria to continue in their respective offices while running for congressmen, drastically increasing their chances of winning to be in the House of Representatives to help elect Gloria to be the Speaker. You can see the hint on the pretended opposition posed by the Office of the Solicitor General to the petition seeking to declare as null and void the law requiring appointed officials to resign upon filing of their certificates of candidacies. You can also see another hint in the fact that almost all justices of the Highest Court are appointed by Gloria. Another hint is the fact that Devanadera filed her certificate of candidacy for congresswoman in Quezon province.
Add to this another Supreme Court’s ruling overturning its own final decision to legalize the cityhood of 16 towns, giving big edge to Gloria’s allies running for congressmen in these localities.
Then, her allies in the present House succeeded in adding legislative districts, giving Gloria another edge of having her allies elected in the new districts. In Cavite alone, new districts were added: Bacoor district, Imus district, Dasmariñas district and another district including Tagaytay City. This brings the legislative districts of Cavite to seven from the original of three. Her ally in Iloilo City also sought and succeeded in dividing the city into two districts. These redistricting efforts looked innocent to the people who do not know of the intention of Gloria.
Thus, it is relatively easy for Gloria to become Speaker.
Can disruption of elections be enough for an evil plot?
The question now therefore is: Can a mere disruption of the elections be enough to force the suspension of proclamation of winners in the presidential, vice-presidential and senatorial races?
Yes, it is enough—and she can do it.
She needed only to disrupt elections in some parts of the country in order for her to force her issue of staying in power.
Looking at the present survey, Noynoy Aquino leads the race at 46 percent and Manny Villar comes next at 27 percent. If there are 45 million voters, these percentages mean that Noynoy would get 20.7 million votes while Villar would get 12.15 million votes.
It is hoped by Gloria’s minions that Villar would rise up further to 35 percent and Noynoy slide down to 40 percent. This hope is optimistic and can be realized considering the well-oiled machinery of Villar. And under this scenario, Noynoy should get 18 million votes and Villar would get 15.75 million votes, or a difference of a little more than two million.
Now, this means that Gloria needed to suspend or prevent elections from happening in areas where the total votes would be at least two-and-a-half million.
It would be relatively doable for her to cause disruptions in Muslim Mindanao where the total number of votes is 1.7 million.
In what other areas can she operate to reach the three-million-vote target?
By the rule of contamination that violence in one province would likely disrupt the elections in the adjacent provinces, she would likely lift her finger to cause her bright boys to operate in Sultan Kudarat province where the total votes is about 300,000 and in North Cotabato where the total vote is also about 300,000. Not too remote to handle is the next neighbor province of South Cotabato where there are also 300,000 voters to complete the three million votes to be suspended. They can also reach their tentacles to Lanao del Sur that is adjacent to Maguindanao province.
With this, we can at least say that it is doable for the Team Gloria to disrupt elections in these areas with the view of preventing any count to happen there.
But if the disruption would result in massive failure of elections, it is a bonus for her.
How would disruptions chill the votes count?
For example, Noynoy Aquino is leading after the canvassing of all votes from areas where elections would have proceeded.
Let us say that his margin of lead is only two million votes over the second-placer, assuming to be Manny Villar. Then, let us say that the total of the votes in areas where voting did not occur is more than two million.
As such, Villar will still have a chance to overturn the upper hand and win the election. Under this circumstance, Noynoy cannot be proclaimed yet.
Then, assume the same situation to be attendant in the case of the vice-presidential race so that the leading candidate cannot also be proclaimed.
Also, assume the same scenario for the senatorial race. Where the margins are to be slim between the No. 1 and No. 13, no senatorial candidate can be proclaimed a winner.
Add to this problem the legal maneuvers of protests and counter-protests to stretch the suspension of election to an indefinite period aimed to prolong the non- proclamation.
The length of time of the suspension can be made longer than the time needed for Gloria to maneuver to become the Speaker of the House with the votes of those representatives who would have already been proclaimed.
With this, Gloria will be Acting President, giving her immunity powers once more.
And if she would already sit as Acting President, the trouble she would spark would now be used as a cause to invoke another move to go parliamentary or justify another surprise move not yet known to history.
But if the trouble results in massive failure of elections, that is the grimmest to happen.
Bombing option
First, we should not discount the series of bombings that occurred in Mindanao in a not-to-distant past.
Remember the days when C4 bombs exploded in a series in different places in Mindanao. These were suspected to have been deliberately done by Norberto Gonzales’ operators.
By doing it again, it is the most viable means of scaring out the people to justify a new action that will in effect suspend the holding of elections in areas due to violations and terrorism.
If the series of bombings were pilot-tested then at a time when Norberto Gonzales was presiding over the intelligence units of the Executive and blame on the Jemaah Islamiyah, they can do it again.
Take note that it is easy to recruit persons to explode bombs that may destroy the computer machines. Recall that during the first computerized elections in ARMM, several computer-counting units were bombed. If this was done before, it can be done with more ease now.
And if bombs were to erupt simultaneously in majority of precincts in Muslim provinces, there will be a failure of elections in the provinces mentioned above and a new martial law may again be declared.
Considering the fact that the total votes in the Muslim areas alone are big enough for the second placer to overtake the leader, proclamation will for sure be suspended until the election is held on a date they could control.
Delay of automated machines
Another option may be a lot easier: the deliberate act of causing delays in the delivery of election computer machines.
Delays may be caused in delivering the machines from the manufacturers to the Comelec and from the Comelec to all precincts. These can happen by sabotaging the shipment procedures or the manufacturing plant in China, where the ZTE golfing buddies of Gloria and the First Gentleman are found.
If delays in the delivery of a good number of machines happen, it will compel the Comelec to revert to the traditional modes of using the same election returns in those areas where no computers would arrive. Rest assured, the Hello Garci dagdag-bawas (vote-shaving-and-padding)
Delays may easily be done in the delivery of computer machines to the remote precinct areas, not only in ARMM but also in other parts of the Philippines. If these delays are done, there would be failures of election and this would contribute to the suspension of proclamation of national election winners.
Now, it is with more reason that delays are more likely if the soldiers would be utilized, considering that they were also used during the Hello Garci operations. Don’t forget that the top military posts are held by the PMA Class of ‘78.
Recently, Norberto Gonzales announced the proposal to utilize soldiers in bringing the election equipment and paraphernalia to the remotest areas. Armed Forces Chief of Staff Victor Ibrado seconded the motion of Gonzales. The Comelec, for its part, sounded off it may do so although the use of the soldiers in 2004 was condemned.
Of course, with soldiers around, it would be an easy prey for the Abu Sayyaf to launch attacks that would prevent the machines from reaching the destinations.
Another, it would be easy to fake assaults to justify the failure to deliver and the destruction of the precinct machines.
Yes, the Comelec has the power to control soldiers in time of elections, but the officers on the field can do whatever they want like what happened in the Hello Garci operations.
It appears it is easy to employ these delay tactics even in non-Muslim provinces.
Robbery of computer machines
Similarly easy is to hire hoodlums to rob away the electronic machines in transit to the precincts.
If bank robberies have shown to be daring in Metro Manila, with more reason that it can be done in case of computer machines in the provinces. It therefore can happen in New People’s Army (NPA) strongholds and the act can be blamed on the Reds. It could happen in Ilocos where Gloria minions control. It could happen in the Cordilleras. It could happen in Isabela. It could happen elsewhere.
So that with these threats of robbery, there would be reasons to justify the use of the soldiers for the delivery of the automated machines.
It looks like that either way the plan to prevent the counting from happening is so doable. And if the robbery incidents would be plenty enough, it would result in massive failure of elections and justify again either the feigned martial law declaration or something worse.
And if these machines are burned in many places, there would be no bright day coming for the Philippines.
Of course, it is also easier to snatch election returns if no automated polling is conducted. By force these may be burned so that there would be nothing that the Comelec database can receive from the field to finish the national canvassing.
If this delay is coupled with legal maneuvers of protest and counter-protests, it would take till eternity for the next president, vice-president and 12 senators to be proclaimed. Gloria’s lawyer, Romulo Makalintal, is a superb election lawyer. He was the one who filed the petition that resulted in the Supreme Court voiding the law requiring the appointed officials to resign upon their filing of certificates of candidacy.
Break into computer codes
Another plan is possible but too remote.
This is a manipulation of the software or program that controls the process of how the votes in the automated elections would be tallied by the national board of canvassers and the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Board of Canvassers.
This is too remote owing to the fact that the computer machines shall all be installed as stand-alone computers. This means that they are not connected with each other to allow a hacker to have enough time to break into secrete codes.
Actually, two minutes is the longest time for each of these precinct machines to get connected to the loop: which consists of the computer machines for the municipal canvassers, machines for the district canvassers, machines for the provincial or city canvassers and machines for the national board of canvassers and another set of machines as data banks to serve as a counter-checking measure just in case.
And when one precinct computer interconnects to the loop, it does so in the manner of sending data like sending text messages to a group of cellphone numbers at the same time.
For sure, it is almost impossible for any hacker to break into the code in a span of two minutes.
Another cause of the remoteness of manipulating into the software program is the almost impossibility to enable the IT experts of Gloria to alter the software. The automation law requires the disclosure of the source codes of the software program to all political parties and stakeholders for them to be examined whether there would be hidden dagdag-bawas program command.
Certainly, it is almost possible to control the counts from all precincts if elections indeed occurred. This is because right after the voting closes, the computer machines function like big cellular phones to send text messages containing the votes of all candidates as messages, from local to national.
And when the data messages were sent and received by the canvassing machines, they can no longer be altered.
To attack MILF is too remote
It is also very remote for Gloria to capitalize on attacking Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) because the government has a commitment to the international parties, including Malaysia and Libya, to continue the ongoing peace talks to iron out kinks in the previous MOA-AD (Memorandum of Agreement-Ancestral Domain) creating the so-called Bangsamoro Juridical Entity.
Whatever plot that would be carried out next the objective is only one: To create a scenario where no president, no vice-president and no 12 senators that can be proclaimed.
Grimmest scenario: Complete power vacuum
But if the failures of election are to happen in majority parts of the country by means of massive delays in the delivery of computer machines, election forms and election ballots and boxes, there will be a complete power vacuum.
Under this case, we will have a situation where nobody is elected even after the terms of offices of Gloria and Noli end on June 30, 2009. This situation will cause vacancy in the Senate President because the incumbent senators are only 12 and they needed at least 13 senators to elect a Senate President. This circumstance will also cause vacancy in the office of the Speaker of the House because majority of the seats in the House of Representatives are vacant due to massive failures of election.
This is the grimmest scenario because the Constitution does not provide who should act as President when there is no elected President, no elected Vice-President, no elected Senate President and no elected Speaker of the House of Representatives.
There will therefore be a complete power vacuum. There will be chaos.
Under this case, the greediest and the arrogant may now arrogate unto himself or herself the powers of the President. A coup d’etat may occur to dissolve the Constitution. There might be a junta that is similar to the one proposed recently by Norberto Gonzales to Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno.
Gloria may stage the coup with the help of the members of the Class ’78 of Philippine Military Academy (PMA) who are her “honorary classmates” and the one occupying the top positions in the military and the police?
This is not to talk about the possibility that Gloria may stage a “self coup d’etat” and declare the abrogation of the Constitution.
One and the same objective: no proclamation
This author sent out a “grim warning” about the martial law plot as early as November 8, 2009, when it was not known whether the Ampatuan Massacre would occur.
Right after the occurrence of the Ampatuan Massacre on November 23, 2009, the author wrote the followup analysis that instead of fomenting war with the MILF and MNLF to justify martial law, it was easier for the Gloria tacticians to foment clan wars by means of backbiting rumors spread out to all clans against each other to stir them up to fight each other.
This was what happened between the clans of Ampatuans and Mangudadatus. Ampatuans’ minds were conditioned that the latter would grab power from the former. And when the clans erupt into war, this would be used as a justification for martial law. This indeed took place.
After the analysis of this author was published in email groups, Gloria proclaimed martial law in Maguindanao.
Somehow, notwithstanding the opposition of many Filipinos against US intervention, they all have something to thank to the US for.
Were it not for the pressure exerted by Obama, Gloria could have resorted to the tactic of continuing martial law or lifting it and proclaiming it again, and doing the same thing all over again with the purpose of preventing elections to occur in certain parts of the country.
The bottomline: No-proclamation plot is a clear-and-present danger.
By TOTO CAUSING
Beware: Complete power vacuum
The premature lifting of the unlawful martial law in Maguindanao province was further prompted by a call from the Obama administration. But this is not an assurance that the Filipinos have nothing more to fear about a no-election scenario. To the contrary, the desire of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to stay in power at any cost is still a clear-and-present danger.
So what do you think will happen if there would be massive failure of elections in almost all parts of the country? As such, nobody would be elected president, vice-president, senators and congressmen in more than half of its seats even after the term of office of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Vice-President Noli De Castro ends on June 30, 2010.
For sure, we will be a country without President, without Vice-President, without Senate President and without Speaker of the House.
This is a situation of “a complete power vacuum.”
The Obama warning
Before proceeding to the explanation why Filipinos should not let their guards down, let us refresh what US President Barrack Hussein Obama said in his inaugural speech concerning corrupt world leaders, where he said:
“To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of the dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.”
Thereafter, Obama went to see leaders perceived to be corrupt. Among those he met was Gloria. She came to the White House where Obama repeatedly stressed that elections in the Philippines must push through.
But during their stay there, the Team Gloria went to scandalous dinners - spending one million pesos at Le Cirque restaurant in New York City and seven hundred fifty thousand pesos in Bobby Van’s Steakhouse in Washington DC.
Recently, State Secretary Hillary Clinton visited the Philippines to “follow up” and deliver America’s message: ensure holding of the elections in 2010.
The follow up made by Clinton on the Arroyo administration must have been due to the persistent intelligence reports reaching the Obama administration that she has been hell-bent on employing means available, no matter how remote, in order for her to stay.
This report is validated by the fact that countless of big corruption issues have been thrown against Gloria, including the $329-million NBN-ZTE project, the fertilizer scam used in the elections of 2004, and the Hello Garci cheating.
After martial law in Maguindanao was declared on December 4, 2009, two United States congressmen, Howard Berman and Chris Smith, passed filed on December 8 their joint resolution before the US Congress condemning the Ampatuan Massacre, calling for impartial investigation and urging the Philippine authorities to respect the free exercise of the freedom of the press. This resolution must have doubly prompted Obama to do persuasive efforts so as not to offend the Filipino-Americans.
Aside from the brutality of the massacre that is revolting to any conscience, the concerns of the US were heightened not only by its economic interests here but also due to the urgings from Filipino-Americans who now have louder voice in its political landscape.
Cling to power at all cost
It takes no fertile imagination to know why Arroyo will insist on staying in power. She is afraid of the day when her powers and immunity from suit as president expire on June 30, 2010. After that, she will surely face the possibility of arrest like what happened to her predecessor, convicted President Joseph Estrada, who she ironically pardoned.
She is also aware that when she is no longer president, there is no legal remedy available for her to prevent the filing of criminal charges against her. Now, she is determined to stay even as President in acting capacity or to change the government to a parliamentary form where she can easily be elected as prime minister to stay immune from suit.
Any of these may be difficult to achieve considering the legal obstacles and rabid opposition from the public. But she is nevertheless determined to try to go for any available remedy.
And if she won in 2004 by means of Hello Garci operations, she may also push for the success of evil objectives, considering further that top military and police positions are occupied by her “classmates” from the PMA Class of 1978.
And if it is possible for her to become acting president or prime minister, it also takes no extraordinary thinking to say why Gloria’s bid to stay in power is a clear-and-present danger: she will do everything she can to keep the powers of the President.
It is therefore not comforting to think that she will not “cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of the dissent.”
Hiding the plot
While this author was not surprised that martial law would be declared in Maguindanao following the massacre in Ampatuan town, he was surprised by the sudden lifting of it.
This was so because there was still enough time, at least two days more, for her to keep the martial rule under Proclamation No. 1959. Yet, she lifted it on the Saturday before the Congress was yet to deliberate on it on the next Monday and the Supreme Court had yet to receive the comment of the Office of the President to the petitions seeking to declare martial law illegal.
Before disserting on the next plot, it is worth noting that Gloria already knew that the martial law she declared will not hold water before the Congress and the Supreme Court, despite the fact that these bodies are being peopled by her allies. But with the clarity of the illegality of martial law, she immediately lifted it.
She did not want to do the lifting within the precarious moments to avoid the risk of getting confirmations about the fears that she had actually been trying to use the legitimate massacre case as a justification for martial law. This law can only be issued on either of the two causes: rebellion or invasion.
And if these fears are confirmed, their execution of a new plot would never get any belief that she was in good faith. Shortly after lifting the martial law, her prosecutors cited unofficial reasons that the said martial law was proclaimed only to allow them to arrest the Ampatuans. The truth, however, remains: she has been trying to hide the no-election plot while looking for ways on how to achieve it using legitimate causes.
Still believing a new plan is still feasible, she nipped her martial law in the bud to erase the doubts as to her “sincerity.”
So that aside from persuasion from the Obama administration, the purpose of lifting the martial law “prematurely” is to hide the plot.
Now that the martial law talks have died down, what is next?
Do not relax.
Evil stays clear and present
The Filipinos must remain vigilant considering the greed and the genius of Gloria’s boys and girls, including Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales; political operator Ronaldo Puno, who is occupying a material portfolio of Secretary of the Interior and Local Governments; Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, who is himself a military tactician; and legal minds Raul Gonzales, who sits as the Chief Presidential Legal Counsel; and Agnes Torres Devanadera, who sits as the Justice Secretary and the Solicitor General at the same time.
Remember that the only legal way for Gloria to achieve her objective of staying in power is to cause disruptions in elections to force a suspension of proclamation of winners in presidential, vice-presidential and senatorial contests.
If there is no President who can be proclaimed, the Constitution says it is the elected Vice-President who shall take over until the new President is proclaimed. But if there is also no Vice-President to take over because he, too, cannot be proclaimed, the Senate President shall take over under the same Constitution. But if there are also no new 12 senators who can be proclaimed because there would still be votes that should be counted, then the incumbent 12 senators cannot elect a Senate President for it will be argued that it needed at least 13 senators to elect a Senate President. And if there is no Senate President, then it is the Speaker of the House who will act as President.
But there is also the danger of this extra-constitutional way: a coup d’etat or a junta in the case of complete power vacuum.
Too easy to get elected Speaker
And if Gloria wins the congressional election in one district in Pampanga, it is easy for her to win the Speaker’s post considering the enormous wealth she has acquired that she can use to bribe and the “debts of gratitude” she had forged during the entire period of her presidency.
Add to this the Supreme Court’s ruling that allowed appointed officials of Gloria to continue in their respective offices while running for congressmen, drastically increasing their chances of winning to be in the House of Representatives to help elect Gloria to be the Speaker. You can see the hint on the pretended opposition posed by the Office of the Solicitor General to the petition seeking to declare as null and void the law requiring appointed officials to resign upon filing of their certificates of candidacies. You can also see another hint in the fact that almost all justices of the Highest Court are appointed by Gloria. Another hint is the fact that Devanadera filed her certificate of candidacy for congresswoman in Quezon province.
Add to this another Supreme Court’s ruling overturning its own final decision to legalize the cityhood of 16 towns, giving big edge to Gloria’s allies running for congressmen in these localities.
Then, her allies in the present House succeeded in adding legislative districts, giving Gloria another edge of having her allies elected in the new districts. In Cavite alone, new districts were added: Bacoor district, Imus district, Dasmariñas district and another district including Tagaytay City. This brings the legislative districts of Cavite to seven from the original of three. Her ally in Iloilo City also sought and succeeded in dividing the city into two districts. These redistricting efforts looked innocent to the people who do not know of the intention of Gloria.
Thus, it is relatively easy for Gloria to become Speaker.
Can disruption of elections be enough for an evil plot?
The question now therefore is: Can a mere disruption of the elections be enough to force the suspension of proclamation of winners in the presidential, vice-presidential and senatorial races?
Yes, it is enough—and she can do it.
She needed only to disrupt elections in some parts of the country in order for her to force her issue of staying in power.
Looking at the present survey, Noynoy Aquino leads the race at 46 percent and Manny Villar comes next at 27 percent. If there are 45 million voters, these percentages mean that Noynoy would get 20.7 million votes while Villar would get 12.15 million votes.
It is hoped by Gloria’s minions that Villar would rise up further to 35 percent and Noynoy slide down to 40 percent. This hope is optimistic and can be realized considering the well-oiled machinery of Villar. And under this scenario, Noynoy should get 18 million votes and Villar would get 15.75 million votes, or a difference of a little more than two million.
Now, this means that Gloria needed to suspend or prevent elections from happening in areas where the total votes would be at least two-and-a-half million.
It would be relatively doable for her to cause disruptions in Muslim Mindanao where the total number of votes is 1.7 million.
In what other areas can she operate to reach the three-million-vote target?
By the rule of contamination that violence in one province would likely disrupt the elections in the adjacent provinces, she would likely lift her finger to cause her bright boys to operate in Sultan Kudarat province where the total votes is about 300,000 and in North Cotabato where the total vote is also about 300,000. Not too remote to handle is the next neighbor province of South Cotabato where there are also 300,000 voters to complete the three million votes to be suspended. They can also reach their tentacles to Lanao del Sur that is adjacent to Maguindanao province.
With this, we can at least say that it is doable for the Team Gloria to disrupt elections in these areas with the view of preventing any count to happen there.
But if the disruption would result in massive failure of elections, it is a bonus for her.
How would disruptions chill the votes count?
For example, Noynoy Aquino is leading after the canvassing of all votes from areas where elections would have proceeded.
Let us say that his margin of lead is only two million votes over the second-placer, assuming to be Manny Villar. Then, let us say that the total of the votes in areas where voting did not occur is more than two million.
As such, Villar will still have a chance to overturn the upper hand and win the election. Under this circumstance, Noynoy cannot be proclaimed yet.
Then, assume the same situation to be attendant in the case of the vice-presidential race so that the leading candidate cannot also be proclaimed.
Also, assume the same scenario for the senatorial race. Where the margins are to be slim between the No. 1 and No. 13, no senatorial candidate can be proclaimed a winner.
Add to this problem the legal maneuvers of protests and counter-protests to stretch the suspension of election to an indefinite period aimed to prolong the non- proclamation.
The length of time of the suspension can be made longer than the time needed for Gloria to maneuver to become the Speaker of the House with the votes of those representatives who would have already been proclaimed.
With this, Gloria will be Acting President, giving her immunity powers once more.
And if she would already sit as Acting President, the trouble she would spark would now be used as a cause to invoke another move to go parliamentary or justify another surprise move not yet known to history.
But if the trouble results in massive failure of elections, that is the grimmest to happen.
Bombing option
First, we should not discount the series of bombings that occurred in Mindanao in a not-to-distant past.
Remember the days when C4 bombs exploded in a series in different places in Mindanao. These were suspected to have been deliberately done by Norberto Gonzales’ operators.
By doing it again, it is the most viable means of scaring out the people to justify a new action that will in effect suspend the holding of elections in areas due to violations and terrorism.
If the series of bombings were pilot-tested then at a time when Norberto Gonzales was presiding over the intelligence units of the Executive and blame on the Jemaah Islamiyah, they can do it again.
Take note that it is easy to recruit persons to explode bombs that may destroy the computer machines. Recall that during the first computerized elections in ARMM, several computer-counting units were bombed. If this was done before, it can be done with more ease now.
And if bombs were to erupt simultaneously in majority of precincts in Muslim provinces, there will be a failure of elections in the provinces mentioned above and a new martial law may again be declared.
Considering the fact that the total votes in the Muslim areas alone are big enough for the second placer to overtake the leader, proclamation will for sure be suspended until the election is held on a date they could control.
Delay of automated machines
Another option may be a lot easier: the deliberate act of causing delays in the delivery of election computer machines.
Delays may be caused in delivering the machines from the manufacturers to the Comelec and from the Comelec to all precincts. These can happen by sabotaging the shipment procedures or the manufacturing plant in China, where the ZTE golfing buddies of Gloria and the First Gentleman are found.
If delays in the delivery of a good number of machines happen, it will compel the Comelec to revert to the traditional modes of using the same election returns in those areas where no computers would arrive. Rest assured, the Hello Garci dagdag-bawas (vote-shaving-and-padding)
Delays may easily be done in the delivery of computer machines to the remote precinct areas, not only in ARMM but also in other parts of the Philippines. If these delays are done, there would be failures of election and this would contribute to the suspension of proclamation of national election winners.
Now, it is with more reason that delays are more likely if the soldiers would be utilized, considering that they were also used during the Hello Garci operations. Don’t forget that the top military posts are held by the PMA Class of ‘78.
Recently, Norberto Gonzales announced the proposal to utilize soldiers in bringing the election equipment and paraphernalia to the remotest areas. Armed Forces Chief of Staff Victor Ibrado seconded the motion of Gonzales. The Comelec, for its part, sounded off it may do so although the use of the soldiers in 2004 was condemned.
Of course, with soldiers around, it would be an easy prey for the Abu Sayyaf to launch attacks that would prevent the machines from reaching the destinations.
Another, it would be easy to fake assaults to justify the failure to deliver and the destruction of the precinct machines.
Yes, the Comelec has the power to control soldiers in time of elections, but the officers on the field can do whatever they want like what happened in the Hello Garci operations.
It appears it is easy to employ these delay tactics even in non-Muslim provinces.
Robbery of computer machines
Similarly easy is to hire hoodlums to rob away the electronic machines in transit to the precincts.
If bank robberies have shown to be daring in Metro Manila, with more reason that it can be done in case of computer machines in the provinces. It therefore can happen in New People’s Army (NPA) strongholds and the act can be blamed on the Reds. It could happen in Ilocos where Gloria minions control. It could happen in the Cordilleras. It could happen in Isabela. It could happen elsewhere.
So that with these threats of robbery, there would be reasons to justify the use of the soldiers for the delivery of the automated machines.
It looks like that either way the plan to prevent the counting from happening is so doable. And if the robbery incidents would be plenty enough, it would result in massive failure of elections and justify again either the feigned martial law declaration or something worse.
And if these machines are burned in many places, there would be no bright day coming for the Philippines.
Of course, it is also easier to snatch election returns if no automated polling is conducted. By force these may be burned so that there would be nothing that the Comelec database can receive from the field to finish the national canvassing.
If this delay is coupled with legal maneuvers of protest and counter-protests, it would take till eternity for the next president, vice-president and 12 senators to be proclaimed. Gloria’s lawyer, Romulo Makalintal, is a superb election lawyer. He was the one who filed the petition that resulted in the Supreme Court voiding the law requiring the appointed officials to resign upon their filing of certificates of candidacy.
Break into computer codes
Another plan is possible but too remote.
This is a manipulation of the software or program that controls the process of how the votes in the automated elections would be tallied by the national board of canvassers and the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Board of Canvassers.
This is too remote owing to the fact that the computer machines shall all be installed as stand-alone computers. This means that they are not connected with each other to allow a hacker to have enough time to break into secrete codes.
Actually, two minutes is the longest time for each of these precinct machines to get connected to the loop: which consists of the computer machines for the municipal canvassers, machines for the district canvassers, machines for the provincial or city canvassers and machines for the national board of canvassers and another set of machines as data banks to serve as a counter-checking measure just in case.
And when one precinct computer interconnects to the loop, it does so in the manner of sending data like sending text messages to a group of cellphone numbers at the same time.
For sure, it is almost impossible for any hacker to break into the code in a span of two minutes.
Another cause of the remoteness of manipulating into the software program is the almost impossibility to enable the IT experts of Gloria to alter the software. The automation law requires the disclosure of the source codes of the software program to all political parties and stakeholders for them to be examined whether there would be hidden dagdag-bawas program command.
Certainly, it is almost possible to control the counts from all precincts if elections indeed occurred. This is because right after the voting closes, the computer machines function like big cellular phones to send text messages containing the votes of all candidates as messages, from local to national.
And when the data messages were sent and received by the canvassing machines, they can no longer be altered.
To attack MILF is too remote
It is also very remote for Gloria to capitalize on attacking Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) because the government has a commitment to the international parties, including Malaysia and Libya, to continue the ongoing peace talks to iron out kinks in the previous MOA-AD (Memorandum of Agreement-Ancestral Domain) creating the so-called Bangsamoro Juridical Entity.
Whatever plot that would be carried out next the objective is only one: To create a scenario where no president, no vice-president and no 12 senators that can be proclaimed.
Grimmest scenario: Complete power vacuum
But if the failures of election are to happen in majority parts of the country by means of massive delays in the delivery of computer machines, election forms and election ballots and boxes, there will be a complete power vacuum.
Under this case, we will have a situation where nobody is elected even after the terms of offices of Gloria and Noli end on June 30, 2009. This situation will cause vacancy in the Senate President because the incumbent senators are only 12 and they needed at least 13 senators to elect a Senate President. This circumstance will also cause vacancy in the office of the Speaker of the House because majority of the seats in the House of Representatives are vacant due to massive failures of election.
This is the grimmest scenario because the Constitution does not provide who should act as President when there is no elected President, no elected Vice-President, no elected Senate President and no elected Speaker of the House of Representatives.
There will therefore be a complete power vacuum. There will be chaos.
Under this case, the greediest and the arrogant may now arrogate unto himself or herself the powers of the President. A coup d’etat may occur to dissolve the Constitution. There might be a junta that is similar to the one proposed recently by Norberto Gonzales to Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno.
Gloria may stage the coup with the help of the members of the Class ’78 of Philippine Military Academy (PMA) who are her “honorary classmates” and the one occupying the top positions in the military and the police?
This is not to talk about the possibility that Gloria may stage a “self coup d’etat” and declare the abrogation of the Constitution.
One and the same objective: no proclamation
This author sent out a “grim warning” about the martial law plot as early as November 8, 2009, when it was not known whether the Ampatuan Massacre would occur.
Right after the occurrence of the Ampatuan Massacre on November 23, 2009, the author wrote the followup analysis that instead of fomenting war with the MILF and MNLF to justify martial law, it was easier for the Gloria tacticians to foment clan wars by means of backbiting rumors spread out to all clans against each other to stir them up to fight each other.
This was what happened between the clans of Ampatuans and Mangudadatus. Ampatuans’ minds were conditioned that the latter would grab power from the former. And when the clans erupt into war, this would be used as a justification for martial law. This indeed took place.
After the analysis of this author was published in email groups, Gloria proclaimed martial law in Maguindanao.
Somehow, notwithstanding the opposition of many Filipinos against US intervention, they all have something to thank to the US for.
Were it not for the pressure exerted by Obama, Gloria could have resorted to the tactic of continuing martial law or lifting it and proclaiming it again, and doing the same thing all over again with the purpose of preventing elections to occur in certain parts of the country.
The bottomline: No-proclamation plot is a clear-and-present danger.
this
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Friday, December 25, 2009
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